Last Week in Review Anything but calm was the reaction to the Fed's position.  The 30yr rate saw dramatic movement as the Bond market took a beating.  30yr fixed rates are in the high 5% range, Jumbo Arms in the low 5% range.  FHA and VA are right at 6%. 

Financial pros will tell you it's wise to never try and catch a falling knife. Seems like decent advice in general - but in the financial world, it means that when the price of a Stock or Bond is in the midst of a severe decline, be very cautious about stepping in to buy...even if it feels so right because the price starts to look cheap. That's because when prices declines sharply, it often gets even worse, making it hard to call the bottom. That's why many investors, who attempt to buy on the way down, say the feeling cuts like a knife. And over the past week - Bonds have been dropping much like a knife, and home loan rates have risen by about .375% across the board.

First, Retail Sales for January were far better than expected - which was good news for Stocks, but as money flowed into Stocks, pulled money out of Bonds and caused Bond prices to move lower. Next, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave it to us straight from the heart, as he testified that the Fed would keep the door open to more rate cuts, which worried Bond Traders about the risk of more inflation ahead. And unlike the media seems to believe, cuts to the Fed Funds Rate generally cause home loan rates to rise, not decline. Why? Because Fed Rate Cuts can spur on more inflation, as it becomes less expensive to finance business and personal purchases. And as a result, inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond - so in the face of inflation, Bond prices fall, and home loan rates rise.

Finally, Moody's credit rating agency downgraded FGIC - one of the very largest Bond insurers in the world. This is another concern for Bonds, as the downgrades of Bond insurers in turn threaten the ratings of the Bonds they insure. If the added safety from insurance on Bonds is in doubt, the yield or rate on those underlying Bonds must increase to compensate investors for the additional risk. All in all - a tough week for Bonds and home loan rates - read on to find what's in store for the week ahead.

Last Week in Review 30yr Fixed rates move up slightly to 5.625% last week but should poise the same 5.5% again mid week.  7/1 and 5/1 Jumbo and Interest Only loans still dominate the Jumbo market with rates in the low 5%. 

"LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS." Slogan from World War II Not just clever words of good advice, this phrase was actually part of the US Office of War Information's attempt to limit the possibility of people inadvertently giving useful information to enemy spies. Now fast forward to present time, as Dallas Fed President Richard "Loose Lips" Fisher's careless comments last week worked to sink the Bond market, and caused home loan rates to rise about .125%.

Fisher lived up to his nickname last week, almost uncontrollably blurting out off-topic comments and rhetoric during his speech in Mexico City, and roiling the financial markets every step of the way. Long recognized as an "inflation hawk", he was the lone dissenter against the .50% cut to the Fed Funds Rate on January 30th.

Fisher stated, "Monetary policy acts with a lag. I liken it to a good single malt whiskey or perhaps truly great tequila: It takes time before you feel its full effect. The Fed has to be very careful now to add just the right amount of stimulus to the punchbowl without mixing in the potential to juice up inflation once the effect of the new punch kicks in. ...My dissenting vote last week was simply a difference of opinion about how far and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl. Given that I had yet to see mitigation in inflation and inflationary expectations from their current high levels...I simply did not feel it was the proper time to support additional monetary accommodation."

The negative outburst by Lose Lips Fisher, which was again a departure from his prepared speech topic, didn't sit well with the Bond market. Bonds hate inflation, as higher inflation erodes the fixed payment return they offer over time. This sparked a sharp sell-off, causing home loan rates to rise.

"A GOOD CONSPIRACY IS UNPROVABLE. I MEAN, IF YOU CAN PROVE IT, IT MEANS THEY SCREWED UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINE." Mel Gibson as Jerry Fletcher in the movie, "Conspiracy Theory" And those who believe in the conspiracy theory that the Fed has access to economic data in advance of the official release dates sure felt their position was proven correct last week...let's take a look.

The main financial event of the week was the Fed, cutting the Fed Funds Rate another .50%, on top of their surprise .75% cut just eight days before. This brings the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.00% and will lower rates for business and consumer loans as well as Home Equity Lines of Credit and Adjustable Rate Home Loans - so please give me a call to discuss how this may help you. Bonds and home loan rates moved with volatility throughout the week, yet ended up close to where they started on Monday.

But the economic calendar stacked up such that two significant economic reports would come just after the Fed decision - the inflation measuring Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, and the heavy hitting monthly Jobs Report. While inflation numbers were relatively in-line and as expected...the Jobs number was one of the worst in years, showing no job creations at all, but instead a net loss of 17,000 jobs. Although future revisions may erase this negative number, this weak indicator made the Fed move look pretty smart, whether the conspiracy theory is true or not.